Impacts of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 on future projected reference evapotranspiration in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

Abstract The continuous increase of atmospheric CO 2 content mainly due to anthropogenic emissions is causing a rise in temperature on earth, altering the hydrological and meteorological processes affecting crop physiology. Evapotranspiration an important component cycle. Thus, understanding change evapotranspiration global warming essential for better water resources planning management agricultural production. In this study, effect climate with focus combined elevated concentrations reference (ETo) was evaluated using Penman–Monteith equation. A EURO-CORDEX regional model (RCM) ensemble used estimate ETo five locations Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy) during period 2021–2050. Then, its projected changes response different (i.e., 372 ppm 550 ppm) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 RCP8.5) were analyzed. Simulation results both scenarios, without increasing levels (372 ppm), showed that annual summertime all increased by average 4 5.4% regard 1981–2005, air 1 1.5 °C. When (550 also considered combination temperature, summer demand varied from − 1.1 2.2% 2021–2050 1981–2005. This shows higher moderated accompanies temperature.